It's An Ill Wind...

Headlines are a funny thing. By their very nature, they are, of course, designed to catch our eye. They are supposed to entice the reader to read further. Unfortunately, in this day and age, few do. I mention this because a client recently pointed out a headline, in a local Phoenix newspaper, which said, or words to this effect "survey shows Phoenix house prices to rise." Boy, was he excited; and no, he did not read the article. The poll was conducted, and I will not name names, by a cable company. Yes, a T.V. cable company. Respondents were invited to answer a series of questions by pressing a button on the remote. They overwhelmingly thought that house prices would rise next year. How unscientific can you get? A poll is only valid when questions are asked of a broad-based demographic, in this case hopefully of people buying or selling a home in the next year, or at least having the wherewithal to do so. Likely respondents in this "poll" could range from bored teens, the baby-sitter, folks trying to change the channel or even the family dog's errant paw. But people point to the headline because they want to believe. The facts, unfortunately, might lead you to a different conclusion.

I decided to do some research to see where this might all lead. I picked an area, the type of subdivision of which there are many in the Valley of the Sun, again I won't name it, that had 37 homes for sale, all in close proximity, in the $200-$300K range. Essentially, all were 3 bedroom, 2 bath, and essentially the homes were very similar, having been built by the same contractor. Of those 37, fully 29 were either vacant or had a tenant. This means that 78% of them are owned by an "investor". What does logic tell you will happen to prices if some of these guys "start to panic", (if you are a seller), or "Get real" (if you are a buyer)? Couple this to the fact that the Builder is still frantically constructing more competition on a daily basis: Plus he is offering no-money down, low interest rate financing, granite counter-tops and sundry other upgrades. Still think prices are going up?

Disaster, huh? Not at all. The vast majority of folks bought these homes 2 or 3 years ago in the $150-175K range. Admittedly, some folks who bought last year may have bought at the top, but historically all should be well over a 5 year, or more, period. Just not in 6 months. But the folks who still have equity in their property get real stubborn. They hope against hope that prices will rise at the same rate they did 2 years ago. Extremely unlikely. It never ceases to amaze me when, otherwise, sane folks; doctors, lawyers and other professionals, get real blinkered in the face of evidence to the contrary. Many say to me, "I'll just rent it for 6 months, and it'll be fine...won't it?" It might but I somehow doubt it.

Let's look at the positive sides. For those folks who thought they had missed out forever, on owning a home in Phoenix, here is another chance to get a foot on the ladder with sellers, both private and corporate, bending over backwards to help you. Have at it!

This is also a great time to trade up. Remember, a year ago you were so happy your house was worth $500K? But sad also, because your dream home with pool and horse facilities on an acre was $1,000,000? Well guess what? This year your house is only worth $350K, but your dream home is now only $700K. So last year the move would have cost you $500K ($1,000,000 - $500,000= $500,000); This year it will only cost you $350K to effect that move. What are you waiting for?

Seafaring folk have an old saying "It's an ill wind that blows no good..."

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